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the Euro will be more low-cost than buck?

Experts expect further fall of euro in a midrange prospect. In particular, analysts BNP Paribas forecast that in the first quarter of following year the common currency will cost less buck.

The euro Collapse to minimum for four years to level is yet a bottom of fall of the common currency, experts notify. Under prognoses of analysts, the eurocurrency will prolong decrease and can be hauled down below parity together with buck. Thus the proximal three-four years, seemingly, will become history as an epoch of weak euro. Financial crisis extending for limits of Greece has bated trust to euro. From the beginning of a current year the common currency has lost already 14 % of the cost against the dollar, and on May, 17th was hauled down to a minimum more than for 4 years. Nevertheless, notes agency Bloomberg, parity of buying power, (it is sized up on the basis of matching of cost of products), indicates that euro the euro exchange rate to buck is still predatory to 8,2 %.

"The Euro still is where to drop, before its rate will go hill up", - the head of International center of currency-banking probes in Geneva Charles Viplots speaks. Its long-term force for euro is over the range $1,1-1,2.

The Expert witness is shared also by analysts UBS, Danske Bank A/S, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Bank of America Merrill Lynch. The Consensus-forecast of 43 experts prepared Bloomberg, guesses euro cost over the range $1,15-1,26 by the end of the year. Thus in BNP Paribas expect that the eurocurrency can be hauled down below parity with buck in the first quarter 2011. Despite the significant fall recently, a value of currency 16 european states still above, than an euro exchange rate at its initiating in 1999 - $1,16675. In October, 2000 the common currency was hauled down to the historical minimum in $0,8272, and a peak value in $1,6038 attained on July, 15th, 2008.

Be kept near to euro low levels can three-four years, the principal currency strategist BNP Paribas Hans-Gjunter Redeker has stated in telephone interview. According to analysts Credit Suisse Group AG, within following three months of euro can fall to $1,16.

According to the assistant of the president of the Russian Federation Arcady Dvorkovich, euro any time still will be on a low level but as currency it will persist. "For euro the uneasy season, but I consider that the euro will persist. Europe by means of other key countries, including Russia, will cope with those problems which one have originated", - he has stated on on Thursday of press conference in Moscow. A.Dvorkovich has resembled that that fund which one recently it has been declared EU, will be financed, including, from IMF, "in which one Russia is the donor, therefore Even technically speaking we will introduce the contribution, the share to the solution of the european problems ".

Reports on building of anti-recessionary fund in size in $1 billion for support of problem european countries about which one the assistant of the Russian president speaks, could not shut down euro fall. Investors are still disturbed by growth of a state debt and prospects of economical growth for more weak economicses of Europe, the principal currency analyst UBS in Singapore has stated a Mansoor Mohi-uddin. In its judgement, the European Central Bank, probablly, will refrain from raise of rates per hundred to help to compensate decrease of the State expenditure In locale. "The combination of a rigid fiscal policy and a weak monetary policy historically result ins to currency easing", - he has told.

Meanwhile, for the european exporters the most significant since building of an exchange rate union euro crisis can become help. "The supercompetitive export vehicle of Germany will be supported very much, very weak exchange rate", - Hans-Gjunter Redeker has told. Last year China has deprived Germany of the status of the largest exporter of products. The greatest impact will plot delicacy of euro on the American exporters to whom dollar exchange rate growth impairs, speaks the professor of economics of the Californian university - Barry Eichengreen. "The weak european economics is for us not well", - he has stated in telephone interview.

And though the becoming cheaper euro can entice tourists into Europe, they will be compelled to think doubly before to be shipped to Greece, the head of currency subdivision RBS Securities speaks. "The weak euro can help tourist branch of Greece. But, on the other hand, people will look news and to see bottles flying by air with" a cocktail of Molotov ", - he notes. -" It considerably will reduce profit from delicacy of currency ". We will resemble that plots of the Greek government on cutting-down of the expenditures on public account, called to spare To the state of 30 billion euro the proximal three years, have provoked mass rioting in Athenes in the current month beginning.

In the long term fears of investors as regards the financial crisis will be torqued and will bate economical growth in Europe, will press euro. Moreover, other saving financial pack can be "foregone", the former employee of Jar of England David Blankflauer considers.

Meanwhile, pessimism pertaining to the future euro state now not only hedge funds, but also long-term investors, and the companies from the most various sectors, and central banks. It endangers for the future of a uniform european currency, writes The Wall Street Journal.

Last months while the euro exchange rate decreased, the european assets sold hedge funds in the core. It was offensive, but is not deadly. However if to them central banks and large official reserves which one agency on the currency market essentially above, the situation can sharply be aggravated are added. The euro exchange rate will prolong fall even if Central Banks and state funds will not sell it, and only will pause purchases.

In the end of the last year the Russian Central Bank has devided out an euro share in international external reserves to 43,8 % from 47,5 % year before. The Central bank of South Korea in May has declared that budgetary and debt problems of countries of euroallowed band essentially reduce attractiveness of euro in the capacity of a reserve currency. This week the head of central bank of Iran Mahmoud Bahmani has declared that the Iranian Central Bank can revise frame of the gold and exchange currency reserves which are sized up by CIA in $81 billion

FINMARKET.RU

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